1. Introduction
The use of energy in various forms has been a fundamental element in the development of humanity and the establishment of civilization. Today, one of the most important criteria of the degree of development and prosperity is the amount of energy that societies produce and consume per capita. The forms of energy produced and used are thermal energy, mechanical energy and electrical energy. Fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), nuclear fission (fission), wood, biomass, sun, water, wind, underground hot and boiling water (hydrothermal) resources are used in the production of these energy types. By using different technologies of these resources, secondary energy sources such as electricity (thermal power plants, nuclear power plants, dams) and heat energy.
The choice of primary energy resources, which countries have to use in development, attaining and maintaining prosperity, is dependent on economic opportunities at the national level, and on political and strategic conjunctures as well as economic at regional and/or international level. Apart from the countries that exchange energy resources with each other in the world, the use of a certain energy source does not affect or concern other countries at first glance. However, in recent years, the negative effects of the use of energy resources on the environment and the world climate have led to the emergence of problems related to energy use among countries that are geographically far from each other and do not exchange any energy resources.
Especially after it was revealed with serious evidence that the world climate is significantly affected by the greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities, the sensitivity of the international community has increased, as a result, political organizations have emerged and a series of political decisions have begun to be taken.
On the other hand, based on the fact that the reserves of energy resources are not very large and countries do not have many options in choosing resources, it is understood that many countries will face political and economic problems in the face of energy use and climate change restrictions in the 21st century.
In this article, whether the climate change is really serious or not, the contribution of human activities to this change, especially energy use, its political dimensions and the adequacy of energy resources in the 21st century are examined.
2. Evidence of Climate Change
Parallel to the development of measurement techniques and satellite technology, especially since the second half of the 20th century, the world's climate has changed gradually in scientific circles, and this change has manifested itself as an increase in the average temperature on land and sea surfaces, and an increase in sea level, while the average precipitation in some regions decreases. started to be suggested. However, the measurements revealed that the main element of climate change is the increase in the average temperature on the earth's surface. Effects such as changes in precipitation, melting of icebergs in the Arctic, retreating glaciers, and rising sea levels were all seen as the results of average temperature rise.
At this stage, the debates on whether the increase in temperature is a temporary phenomenon observed for a few decades in a row, or whether there is a continuous and regular upward trend that has been going on for hundreds of years, began in the 1980s and 1990s with much more sensitive measurements, the development of paleoclimatology, clarified by computer modeling techniques. The results of scientific studies4 can be summarized as follows:
I. The average temperature of the Earth's surface has increased by 0.6 °C over the 20th century.
• The average near-surface air temperature and sea surface temperature on land have increased continuously since 1861. In the measurements, the high temperature values represented by the cities have been corrected. In the 20th century, a significant increase in temperature is observed between 1910-1945 and 1976-2000.
• According to the latest analysis of representative data for the northern hemisphere, the temperature increase in the 20th century is not seen in any other century in the last millennium.
ii. Temperatures have increased in the 8 km lower part of the atmosphere over the last forty years.
• Measurements made by meteorological balloons after the 1950s and by both satellite and meteorological balloons after 1979 revealed that the temperature in the 8 km lower part of the atmosphere increases by 0.15 °C every decade.
iii. Snow cover and icing have decreased.
• Measurements with satellites show that since the second half of the 1960s, snow cover has decreased by about 10%; On the other hand, observations made on land prove that the annual icing period in rivers and lakes in the northern hemisphere was shortened by 2 weeks in the 20th century.
• Sea ice has decreased by around 10 to 15% since the 1950s; In recent decades, there has been a decrease of up to 40% in the thickness of the Arctic sea ice during the summer and autumn periods.
iv. The average sea level on Earth has risen and the amount of heat held by the oceans has increased.
• Tide measurement data reveal that the world's sea level rose by 0.1 to 0.2 meters during the 20th century.
v. Changes have also occurred in other important elements of the climate.
• During the 20th century, precipitation in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern hemisphere increased by 0.5 to 1% per decade. In contrast, precipitation in the subtropical regions of the northern hemisphere (10°N to 30°N) seems to have decreased by 0.3% per decade.
• The last half of the 20th century saw a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events in the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
• While there has been a decrease in the frequency of extreme low temperatures since 1950, there has been a smaller increase in the frequency of extreme temperatures.
• Warm periods of the El-Nino-Southern Emission event have become more frequent, more persistent and more severe since the mid-1970s than in the past 100 years.
• In recent decades, an increase in the frequency and severity of drought has been observed, as has been the case in parts of Asia and Africa.
3. Impacts of Climate Change
Since the world's climate is very complex, it is very difficult to make a precise prediction about how climate changes will affect humanity. However, when even mass warming, which is one of the most prominent aspects of climate change, is considered alone, the emerging social dimensions display a frightening appearance. For example, the wind and precipitation patterns that have dominated the world's climate for thousands of years and affect the lives of tens of millions of people will change significantly. Rising sea level will threaten islands and coastal areas near sea level. Hunger caused by drought and other disasters brought by heavy rains can be added to humanity, which is already dealing with enough problems with increasing population and economic imbalances.
Considering the fact that the dust cloud caused by the impact of a giant meteorite on the earth 65 million years ago affected the sun's rays for 3 years, and as a result, many plant species could not develop and disappeared, and therefore many animal species, including dinosaurs, disappeared due to the disconnection of the food chain, How a sudden and significant change in the world's climate will deeply affect living beings has led not only scientists, but also large masses of people and therefore politicians to think about the issue.
4. Causes of Climate Change
The above-mentioned information has scientifically revealed that there is mass warming that will deeply affect the world's climate and thus threaten human life, and that the warming trend is gradually increasing. When this fact emerged, especially in the second half of the 20th century, it has been discussed for a long time whether human activities contributed to the increase in warming or not. If warming and the associated climate change were the result of a natural process, it would be necessary to consider measures to mitigate the effects of the consequences. However, according to the phenomenon, which started in a narrow scientific environment at first and then gradually fed with scientific evidence, the most important reason for the increase in warming, especially in the 20th century, is the unexpected increase in the proportions of various gases produced as a result of human activities in the atmosphere. Therefore,
A significant part of these gases prevent the escaping of the sun rays, especially the infrared rays of heating nature, which are reflected from the ground towards the atmosphere, thus causing the areas close to the surface to heat up. Since this physical phenomenon is similar to the fact that plastic or glass covers used in greenhouses cause the inside of the greenhouse to heat up, the gases in question are called "greenhouse gases".
Types
The types of greenhouse gases, their increase rates in the atmosphere and their sources are given below:
Carbon dioxide (CO2) gas: The concentration of CO2 gas in the atmosphere5 has increased by 31% since 1750. Today, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has never reached such a high level in the last 420,000 years, or even in the last 20 million years. Over the last 20 years, about three-quarters of the anthropogenic CO2 gas released into the atmosphere has come from the combustion of fossil fuels, with the rest from land use change and especially deforestation. In the last two decades, the annual increase in CO2 gas in the atmosphere has been 0.4%, and after 1990 the annual increase has ranged from 0.2 to 0.8%.
Methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) gases: The amount of methane in the atmosphere has increased by 151% since 1750 and is still increasing. For the last 420 000 years, the present concentration of methane in the atmosphere has not been reached. A certain slowdown is observed in the annual increase in methane gas concentration in the 1990s. About half of methane emissions are due to human activities such as the use of fossil fuels, cattle breeding, rice farming, and landfilling. Recently, carbon monoxide gas emission has also been determined due to the increase in methane gas.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) gas: The concentration of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased by 17% since 1750 and continues to increase. The current concentration of nitrous oxide has not been encountered in the last millennium. About one-third of nitrous oxide emissions come from human activities such as arable land, cattle feed, and the chemical industry.
Halocarbon gases: There has been little increase or decrease in the emission of halogenated carbon (halocarbon) gases, which both weaken the ozone layer and have a greenhouse effect, since 1995, with the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. On the other hand, an increase is observed in other halocarbon gases, which are used instead of these gases in the industry and have a greenhouse effect.
5. Climate Change and Energy Resources
The most important and most common greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2). Since it is clear that 75% of this gas is caused by the burning of fossil energy sources such as coal, oil and natural gas, efforts to prevent climate change, reduce the use of fossil fuels, and use of other energy sources that have less or no effect on climate change are on the agenda. . At this stage, another constraint appears before humanity. All available energy resources in the world are not sufficient in quantity (reserve) for a sustainable development and are not evenly distributed among geographical regions and countries. This situation is summarized in Table-1. As it can be seen from the table, if the current consumption trend continues, the existing energy resources other than coal are in the 21st century.
In this case, since humanity cannot remain without energy, even if global warming and climate change are not taken into account, firstly the more expensive reserves to be extracted from fossil energy sources will be put into operation gradually, technologies that will save energy in all areas from industry to agriculture will develop, solar (photovoltaic), geothermal, biomass. The contribution of renewable energy sources such as wind and wind will be increased. Nuclear energy, which uses uranium as a fuel, has a different position compared to other energy sources. First of all, uranium is a concentrated6 energy source.
For example, while it is possible to produce 1 kWh7 from 1 kg of wood, 3 kWh from 1 kg of coal, and 4 kWh from 1 kg of oil, 400 000 kWh of electricity can be produced from 1 kg of uranium. However, this value can exceed 7 000 000 kWh with the re-introduction of plutonium, which is produced in uranium and is also an energy source. Thus, with the reprocessing of spent uranium, the introduction of fast breeder reactors and the use of thorium8, the lifetime of uranium reserves can be increased by 50-60 times.
0 Comments